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21 Oct 2022

AUD/USD flirts with daily low amid stronger USD, seems vulnerable near mid-0.6200s

  • AUD/USD meets with a fresh supply on Friday amid a goodish pickup in the USD demand.
  • Aggressive Fed rate hike bets and the continuous rise in the US bond yields boost the buck.
  • Recession fears and a softer risk tone further drive flows away from the risk-sensitive aussie.

The AUD/USD pair comes under some selling pressure on Friday and retreats further from a nearly two-week high, around the 0.6355 region touched the previous day. The pair maintains its offered tone through the first half of the European session and is currently flirting with the daily high, just below mid-0.6200s.

The US dollar regains positive traction and climbs to over a one-week high, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting pressure on the AUD/USD pair. The overnight hawkish remarks by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reinforced expectations for another supersized rate hike in November. Harker warned that the US central bank is actively trying to slow the economy to combat inflation.

His comments added fuel to the recent rally in the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the rate on the benchmark 10-year US government bond jumps to its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, which continues to act as a tailwind for the greenback. Apart from this, a softer risk tone further benefits the safe-haven buck and contributes to driving flows away from the risk-sensitive aussie.

Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to slow the pace of policy tightening earlier this month suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside. Hence, a subsequent slide back towards the 0.6200 mark, en route to the YTD low, around the 0.6170 area, remains a distinct possibility amid the absent market-moving US macro releases.

Technical levels to watch

 

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