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14 Mar 2023

EUR/USD slips just below Tuesday’s open price of 1.0729

  • EUR/USD trades slightly lower, but losses remain limited after US CPI data release.
  • Market participants assess US inflation data's implications on Fed's monetary policy.
  • EUR/USD faces immediate resistance at 1.0772, while support is at 1.0666.
  • Wednesday’s US Retail Sales and Thursday's ECB rate decision data are ahead.

Daily price movements:

EUR/USD currency pair trades under pressure around 1.0717 at the press time after Tuesday’s US CPI data release. However, the losses remain limited as market participants assess the inflation data's implications on the Fed's monetary policy. As of writing, the EUR/USD is down 0.05% on the day, with the daily high and low at 1.0748 and 1.0679, respectively.

According to Société Générale economists, if ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers a hawkish press conference and raises rates by 50 bps on Thursday, the EUR/USD pair could climb above 1.0800.

Key economic events:

It is essential to closely follow the US February Retail Sales report on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT and ECB Monetary Policy Decision Statement on Thursday at 13:15 GMT as they are critical data points in the short term.

Due to the devastating collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the market is anticipating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a less aggressive monetary policy stance. 

This is because the Federal Reserve (Fed) may want to avoid hiking rates in the future to prevent more banking collapses from occurring.

Technical view:

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair faces immediate resistance at 1.0772, followed by 1.0814 and 1.0879 levels. On the other hand, the support is at 1.0666, followed by 1.0601 and 1.0560 levels. The daily 20-SMA is 1.0634, while the daily 50-SMA is 1.0723. The daily RSI(14) is at 54.906 with a neutral stance. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest daily decline is at 1.0708, while the 61.8% Fibonacci level is at 1.0683.

 

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NZD/USD bounces off weekly lows of 0.6084 and rises, even though an inflation report in the United States (US) warrants further tightening by the US F
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