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16 Oct 2023

EUR/GBP falling back into 0.8640 as Euro stumbles

  • The EUR/GBP is seeing a fall back into Friday's range after the Euro's early bid ran out of steam.
  • The GBP softened after a dovish showing for BoE officials, but the EUR failed to capitalize.
  • It's a UK-heavy economic calendar theme for this week's data docket.

The EUR/GBP is falling back into 0.8640 after an early bid for the Euro (EUR) on the back of dovish comments from Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill, which sparked a brief pullback in the Pound Sterling (GBP). The Euro flubbed the gain, and a lack of bullish momentum sent the EUR/GBP falling back into Friday's trading range, etching in a failed breakout on the intraday charts.

The BoE's Pill noted that earnings data has begun to twist around itself, with different earnings indicators pointing in different directions, and threw some cold water on interest rate hike expectations. The EUR/GBP surged up into 0.8671 on reaction, before settling back into the low end for Monday.

BoE’s Pill: We have done a lot on interest rates

Tuesday sees earnings for the UK, with Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses forecast to print flat at 7.8% for the quarter into August, while the EU side of the calendar sees the start of another round of EcoFin meetings, where Finance Ministers from across the EU will gather in Brussels.

The mid-week sees a peak in data action with UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures due early Wednesday, and the month-on-month figure for September is forecast to tick up slightly to 0.4% from 0.3%. On the EU side, Wednesday also sees the EU's Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, with the annualized figure for September seen flat at 4.5%.

EUR/GBP Technical Outlook

The Euro flubbed a bullish run early Monday, and intraday action has the EUR/GBP pair tumbling from the day's high of 0.8671 back into the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.8645. Bearish action will see the pair falling further into Friday's lows near 0.8633, and an upside recovery will have to first clear the 50-hour SMA near 0.8650.

Daily candlesticks have the EUR/GBP trading into the top-end in the medium-term, but the long-term stance remains moderately bearish, with price action trading on the south side of the 200-day SMA currently parked at the 0.8700 handle. 

EUR/GBP Hourly Chart

EUR/GBP Technical Levels

 

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