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1 Nov 2023

USD/CHF consolidates its gains, eyes on Fed rate decision, SNB’s Jordan speech

  • USD/CHF oscillates around the 0.9076-0.9105 region in a narrow trading band ahead of the key event.
  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with no surprise in rate expected.
  • Swiss Real Retail Sales came in at -0.6% YoY in September vs. -2.2%, better than expected.
  • FOMC policy meeting and Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Jordan's speech will be in the spotlight on Wednesday.

The USD/CHF pair consolidates its recent gains after climbing to multi-week highs of 0.9107 during the Asian session on Wednesday. Investors await the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting later on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. The pair currently trades around 0.9097, down 0.07% on the day.

The US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for October eased to 44.0 from 44.1 in September. The CB Consumer Confidence Index from October surpassed expectations, coming in at 102.6. Additionally, the US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices improved to 2.2% in August YoY versus 0.2% prior, better than the market estimation of 1.6%. Finally, the House Price Index came in at 0.6% MoM versus 0.8% prior.

FOMC will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday with no surprise in the rate expected. Market players will closely monitor the FOMC’s message during the press conference about how high the bar is to convince the FOMC to raise the interest rates again. The hawkish comments from Fed officials might lift the US Dollar (USD) and exert pressure on the CHF. According to CME Fedwatch tools, the market priced in a 97% rate hold in the November meeting, while the odds of a rate hike for the November meeting increased to 29.1%.

On Tuesday, the Swiss Real Retail Sales for September came in at a 0.6% drop YoY from the previous reading of a 2.2% fall, better than the market consensus of a 1.2% decline. The upbeat figure failed to boost the Swiss Franc (CHF). However, the escalating tension in the Middle East might boost the CHF, a traditional safe-haven currency, and cap the upside of the USD/CHF pair.

Moving on, the FOMC policy meeting and Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan's speech will be the highlights. Also, the US ADP employment report, JOLTS Job Openings, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be due later on Wednesday. Later this week, the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Thursday and US employment data, including Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings, will be released on Friday.

 

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