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27 Nov 2023

NZD/USD should be able to appreciate moderately over the course of 2024 – Commerzbank

The NZD has lost some ground against the US Dollar since the beginning of the year. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Kiwi’s outlook.

Stubborn inflation causes upward potential

In the medium term, we see further potential for a recovery in the course of 2024. On the one hand, there are increasing signs that the US economy is slipping into a recession, albeit a mild one. We therefore expect the Fed to cut rates by 100 bps next year. On the other hand, the RNBZ has significantly less room for manoeuvre to make similar interest rate cuts. After all, inflation is still proving to be very stubborn. Despite the early and sharp interest rate hikes, inflation is still some way from returning to the target range of 1-3% on a sustained basis.

In 2025, inflation is likely to prove more stubborn than expected globally, as it has already in New Zealand. The Fed is then likely to return to a more hawkish stance, which should benefit the US Dollar. However, as the RBNZ has proven to be quite resolute in its fight against inflation, the downside potential for the NZD/USD should remain limited.

 

Nov 27, 2023

US: FOMC Minutes kept the cautious tone – UOB

Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew comments on the latest publication of the FOMC Minutes of the November 1 meeting.
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Nov 27, 2023

Forex Today: US Dollar struggles despite a cautious start to the inflation week

Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 27: Major currency pairs extend their range play into Monday, as investors refrain from placing fresh directional bets amid souring risk sentiment and ahead of key inflation data from the United States (US) and the Eurozone later this week.
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