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13 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: New Zealand current account is deteriorating – Societe Generale
Sebastien Galy, Senior FX Strategist at Societe Generale notes that New Zealand tried to give a bearish punt on NZD and failed.
He writes, “Its current account is deteriorating on the back of demand to rebuild the capital and this is the stuff of typical carry trades. AUDNZD is being sucked lower towards the key 1.22 supportwith 1.20 a far more serious resistance.” He feels that eventually both AUD and NZD will suffer from an unwind of the short USD trade but we are far too early in that process. The US budget went positive in Jan and it had likely much to do with the extensive cost cutting the government had to undertake.
He writes, “Its current account is deteriorating on the back of demand to rebuild the capital and this is the stuff of typical carry trades. AUDNZD is being sucked lower towards the key 1.22 supportwith 1.20 a far more serious resistance.” He feels that eventually both AUD and NZD will suffer from an unwind of the short USD trade but we are far too early in that process. The US budget went positive in Jan and it had likely much to do with the extensive cost cutting the government had to undertake.