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22 Dec 2023

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Declines towards 140.00 ahead of US core PCE Inflation data

  • USD/JPY continues to decline further towards 140.00 amid soft US Dollar.
  • Investors await the US core PCE price index data for further guidance.
  • USD/JPY may find an intermediate cushion near upward-sloping trendline.

The USD/JPY pair consolidates in a tight range near 142.00 after a sharp correction ahead of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

The core PCE inflation report is expected to remain soft as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25-5.50%. The downside in the major would continue if the underlying inflation turns out softer-than-anticipated. Meanwhile, deepening rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have weighed heavily on the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index has refreshed its four-month low around 101.55.

On the Tokyo front, Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained above the 2% target for the 20th time in a row.  The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to continue its ultra-dovish policy stance till wage growth in the Japanese economy gets high enough to keep inflation comfortably above 2%.

USD/JPY is consistently declining from more than one month. The downside momentum accelerated after a bearish crossover from the 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which happened around 148.80. The asset is expected to decline further towards the upward-sloping trendline plotted from January 16 low at 127.22.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bearish range of 20.00-40.000, pointing to continuation of a downside momentum.

Fresh downside would appear if the asset drops below December 14 low near 141.00. This would drag it towards the upward-sloping trendline near 139.40, followed by July 28 low near 138.00.

In an alternate scenario, a recovery move above December 19 high near 145.00 would drive the asset towards December 11 high around 146.60, followed by December 6 high near 148.00.

USD/JPY daily chart

 

Dec 22, 2023

AUD/USD extends its rally beyond 0.6800 awaiting US PCE data

The Australian Dollar’s bullish momentum remains firm, as the pair has crossed beyond the 0.6800 level favoured by a broad-based Dollar weakness, with all eyes on the US PCE Prices Index, due later today.
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Dec 22, 2023

GBP/USD: Bull trend looks poised to extend – Scotiabank

GBP/USD extends its recovery on Friday. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.
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