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18 Jan 2024

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Builds on overnight recovery from 200-day SMA, bearish bias remains

  • EUR/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day and moves away from over a one-month low.
  • The setup favours bear and supports prospects for the emergence of fresh selling at higher levels.
  • Reduced bets for a March Fed rate cut favour the USD bulls and should contribute to capping gains.

The EUR/USD pair builds on the overnight bounce from the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the 1.0845 region and gains some positive traction for the second straight day on Thursday. Spot prices, however, struggle to capitalize on the move beyond the 1.0900 round figure, warranting some caution before positioning for any further gains amid the underlying bullish tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD).

The better-than-expected release of the US Retail Sales figures on Wednesday pointed to a still-resilient consumer spending and suggested that the economy is in good shape. This provides the Federal Reserve (Fed) with more headroom to keep interest rates higher for longer and forces investors to further trim their bets for a March rate cut. The hawkish outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which favours the USD bulls and should keep a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart have just started drifting into negative territory. This, along with the recent breakdown through a short-term trading range, supports prospects for the emergence of fresh sellers at higher levels. The trading range support breakpoint, around the 1.0920 region, now seems to act as an immediate strong barrier. Some follow-through buying, however, might trigger a short-covering rally and allow the EUR/USD pair to make a fresh attempt to conquer the 1.1000 psychological mark.

On the flip side, the technically significant 200-day SMA, currently around the 1.0845 region, might continue to protect the immediate downside. A convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and expose the 100-day SMA support, near the 1.0785 zone. The downfall could extend further and drag the EUR/USD pair further towards the December monthly swing low, around the 1.0725-1.0720 area.

EUR/USD daily chart

fxsoriginal

Technical levels to watch

 

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