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12 Feb 2024

NZD/JPY consolidates gains, diverging RBNZ and BoJ policies stir movements

  • The NZD/JPY trades at 91.567, recording 0.23% losses in Monday's session.
  • The RBNZ is expected to continue hiking, leading to a terminal rate of 6% by April.
  • Markets are betting on a BoJ liftoff by June.

In Monday's session, the NZD/JPY declined to 91.55 with a slight downtrend of 0.23%. As market participants anticipate diverging strategies between the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and Bank of Japan (BoJ), NZD/JPY the Kiwi is set for further strengthening as the downside could be explained by investors taking profits and consolidating gains.

The RBNZ Governor Orr appeared before a parliamentary committee and maintained a hawkish stance, signaling that steady inflation at 4.7% YoY is still above the 2% target and hinting that additional tightening may be appropriate. As for now, the odds of a February hike stand at 33% and rose to 65% by May.

In addition, as the New Zealand economic climate remains robust, fueling expectations of a more aggressive central bank policy, the slow economic growth and low inflation in Japan could push BoJ towards further easing and delay a lift until June weakening the pair. Key economic indicators and policy announcements from both banks will likely shape the NZD/JPY pair's dynamics substantially, with market participants eyeing upcoming RBNZ and BoJ meetings.

NZD/JPY technical analysis

The daily chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands in positive territory, marking descending from overbought regions, aligning with a bullish perspective. This downward slope suggests a slight weakening in buying momentum as buyers take profits and consolidate gains. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints green bars, indicating that buyers are maintaining control over the market direction.

In contrast, the hourly RSI paints a slightly negative territory, as it fell to near its 50 middle points while the hourly MACD histogram, on the other hand, prints declining green bars, indicating a building negative momentum.

Considering the juxtaposition of daily and hourly dynamics, it seems likely that the NZD/JPY pair is following a temporary pullback within a broader bullish trend as it sits above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This suggests a possible dominance of buyers in the larger time frame, despite short-term selling pressure.

NZD/JPY daily chart

Feb 12, 2024

EUR/USD cycles on Monday with pair hampered by technical barriers

EUR/USD tested 1.0800 on Monday, but broad-market flows remain tepid in thin action to kick off the new trading week.
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Feb 13, 2024

GBP/JPY grapples with 188.60 ahead of densely-packed week

The GBP/JPY saw an early dip below the 188.00 handle before markets recovered back into familiar levels on Monday, and the Guppy pair continues to trade into familiar consolidation levels heading into a heavy week full of UK and Japanese figures on the economic calendar’s data docket.
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