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18 Dec 2024

GBP/USD Forecast: US Fed sends Pound into worrisome territory ahead of BoE

  • The Federal Reserve delivered as expected, foresees two rate cuts in 2025.
  • The Bank of England will announce its decision on monetary policy early on Thursday.
  • GBP/USD approaches the 1.2600 mark after gaining near-term bearish traction.

The British Pound found near-term support earlier in the day, leading to GBP/USD reaching an intraday high of 1.2725. The trigger was the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose 2.6% on a yearly basis in November after printing at 2.3% growth in October, according to the data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday.

Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy items) rose by 3.5% YoY in November, compared to a 3.3% increase in October while below the market consensus of 3.6%. Services inflation stayed unchanged at 5.0% YoY in November.

The pair held above 1.2700 afterwards, then collapsed after the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it lowered the policy rate, federal funds rate, by 25 basis points to the range of 4.25%-4.5%.

The Fed made minor changes to its policy statement from the November meeting. Still, the dot-plot shows policymakers foresee now just two rate cuts in 2025, resulting in a hawkish cut that boosted demand for the US Dollar in a risk-averse environment.

Economic Indicator

BoE Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP.

Read more.

Next release: Thu Dec 19, 2024 12:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 4.75%

Previous: 4.75%

Source: Bank of England

 

Dec 18, 2024

USD/JPY rises as Fed cuts 25 bps and maintains hawkish outlook

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY currency pair rose after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
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Dec 18, 2024

EUR/USD tanks post-Fed decision, sellers eye 1.0400

The EUR/USD fell sharply, from around 1.0500, after the Federal Reserve lowered borrowing costs but adopted a cautious stance on the interest rates path in 2025.
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