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28 Apr 2025

Oil: Crude sees modest gains – ING

The oil market managed to trade marginally higher in the early morning today, with ICE Brent trading above $67/bbl, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Oil markets edge higher amid trade talk uncertainty

"Market participants are waiting for more clarity over the conflicting signals from the ongoing US-China trade talks. Meanwhile, the US and Iran talks of a deal over the nuclear programme continue to remain constructive, with both countries agreeing to meet again in Europe soon. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on 5 May to discuss output plans for June."

"The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net longs in ICE Brent by 29,432 lots to 128,383 lots as of last Tuesday. This was driven predominantly by the liquidation of short positions. There was also a small portion of new longs entering the market. Similarly, in NYMEX WTI, speculators boosted their net long by 36,132 lots for a second consecutive week to 147,331 lots over the reporting week, the highest bullish bets since the last week of January. This market continues to gauge the potential tariff impact on oil flows into the US."

"The latest data from Baker Hughes shows that drilling activity in the US rose for the second consecutive week, marking the first back-to-back rise since February. The number of active US oil rigs rose by two over the week to 483 as of 25 April 2025. However, the oil rig count is still down by 23 compared to this time last year. The total rig count stood at 587 over the reporting week, up from 585 a week earlier, but 4.7% lower than the same time last year. Primary Vision’s frac spread count, which gives an idea of completion activity, increased by five over the week to 205."

Apr 28, 2025

EUR: The ECB is sounding pretty dovish – ING

The mood music coming from the European Central Bank (ECB) sounds pretty dovish, with some even happy to speculate over 50bp of rate cuts, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
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Apr 28, 2025

DXY: Technical rebound on the daily charts – OCBC

Dollar Index (DXY) held on to recent gains amid relative calm (no fresh tariff angst). While tariff uncertainties linger, recent developments pointed to signs of de-escalation. DXY was last at 99.62 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
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