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      18 Feb 2013

      Forex: EUR/USD eases back to opening price

      After the sharp rally seen after the EMU current account data, though not moved in reaction to its figures, the EUR/USD was capped at 1.3379 high and returned to its opening price area, around 1.3350. An empty calendar and the US out of the picture today, leave investors with no particular interest for what's coming. However, low volumes could allow wider moves in the FX market.

      For now, the EUR/USD trades quietly. At 14:30 GMT, we have ECB Draghi's speech. About ECB Draghi's position on exchange rates, saying they're not a direct political target but would of course influence growth and inflation projections, Commerzbank analyst Leuchtmann believes he was signalling that the stronger EUR/USD was a reason for more pessimistic ECB projections which might be used as an excuse for a rate cut. "Everyone is reassuring me that my concerns are unfounded. It is probably merely due to the fact that after the experience of the past 3 years nothing would surprise me when it comes to the ECB", he explained, concerned and pointing to a rate cut as fatal for the EUR/USD.

      "On the upside, break above 1.3400, would provide relief, while only regain of 1.3500 zone, 50% of 1.3710/1.3305 would shift near-term focus higher", wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica, pointing to 1.3300 offering initial support, ahead of 1.3285 and 1.3265.
      Feb 18, 2013

      Fundamental Morning Wrap: EUR Silvio worries, Abe & JPY continue and GBP under pressure

      With a quiet week ahead we have taken a look at the morning institutional research and note that the focus appears to have fallen on a cluster of themes; Europe has its eyes on the Italian election, the G7 & 20 have had little effect on Japanese attitudes towards monetary policy, and downside pressure is building up against GBP.
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      Feb 18, 2013

      Divergent economic fortunes collectively sap commodities

      Amidst the recent drama surrounding the Central Banks, investors have scaled back expectations on a rally in commodities, given the most bearish stance towards these avenues since November. Widespread signs of improving U.S. growth along with fresh concerns of rekindling weakness in the Eurozone have collectively fortified the American dollar in recent weeks, seemingly revitalizing the currency and marking commodity hedges as casualties.
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