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19 Feb 2013

Forex: AUD/NZD above 1.2250 on Kiwi weakness

AUD/NZD has recently spiked to the upside on Kiwi weakness hitting fresh 4-day highs at 1.2280, up from session lows at 1.2170, last at 1.2254, as wires reported “some NZ milk powder destroyed” in Beijing by Chinese authorities. “NZD has been best performing currency lately - so might be vulnerable for selloff,” said Forex analyst John Noonan in his twitter account referring to the news. Kiwi is now along CAD the worst performing currency among majors since last Thursday.

The cross also moved to the upside following RBA minutes that sent AUD/USD to fresh session and weekly highs above the 1.0330 mark, as chances for a rate cut in next March RBA meeting are falling down to 25% according to cash rate futures, coming from previous 30%. The central bank said previous rate cuts are already taking an effect, and that there is scope for further easing if necessary. AUD/NZD is up +0.52% so far for the week, and -2.54% since year started.

Immediate resistance to the upside for AUD/NZD shows at recent fresh 4-day highs 1.2280, followed by Feb 08 lows/Feb 13 highs at 1.2308/13, followed by Feb 11 highs at 1.2363, and Feb 07 highs at 1.2391. To the downside, nearest term support lies at recent session/yesterday's lows 1.2170/64, followed by Friday's fresh 29-month lows at 1.2140, and May 2010 lows at 1.2124.
Feb 19, 2013

Forex Flash: ASX200 rally hints AUD softness may not last - RBS

The ongoing out-performance from the Australian stock market, in view of Greg Gibbs, currency analyst at RBS, "suggests that the recent relative softness in the AUD may not last" he notes.
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Feb 19, 2013

Forex: RBA will need to cut rates further - NAB

RBA minutes have been released 3 hours ago, and AUD/USD has been capped below fresh weekly highs at 1.0331, previous Thursday's lows price zone, last at 1.0320. According to NAB: “The RBA notes the persistently high AUD and our analysis suggests that more rate cuts will be required, as well as a pull-back in the AUD, to see growth move back to trend in 2014,” the analysts say, expecting still “three rate cuts ahead.”
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