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21 Feb 2013

Forex: EUR/USD moves above 1.3200, Fed's Bullard still ahead

With the release of the last relevant pieces of US data for today, the EUR/USD finally moved above the 1.3200 line and printed a session high at 1.3228. Still, after yesterday’s unsettled market on the FOMC meeting minutes, today's Fed Bullard's speach 17:30 GMT must be the real focus of the day.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US dropped from -5.8 to -12.5 in February, instead of rising to 1.0 as expected, disappointing investors.

The Leading Indicator by the Conference Board came at 0.2% in January (MoM), lower than the 0.3% expected. December data came in at 0.5%.

November existing home sales were revised lower by -1.2%, from 4.94M to 4.90M. January data was expected to come in at 4.90M, but surprised by rising to 4.92M.

UBS analysts are neutral: “Yesterday's sharp sell-off suggests the risk is for extension of the consolidation phase”, wrote analyst Gareth Berry, pointing to support at 1.3187 ahead of 1.3063. Resistance is at 1.3434.
Feb 21, 2013

Session Recap: USD keeps shining

After yesterday's FOMC minutes, the main theme of the day has been USD and JPY strength. The greenback benefited from expectations the Federal Reserve may stop providing monetary stimulus. Meanwhile, the euro was also weighed by renewed signs of a struggling economy after region's PMI came in softer than expected in February. Uncertainty ahead of an Italian general election on the weekend also kept investors away from buying the euro. Commodity currencies remain under pressure, while the Cable managed to rebound from a 2 ½-year low scored earlier.
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Feb 21, 2013

Forex Flash: Yesterday’s FOMC 18 months in the making? – UBS

With the Fed, it really is about keeping the peace, and they did so by deciding outright around 18 months ago that extending stimulus expectations as far out into the future as possible would be the best approach – calendar guidance was first adopted, before being dropped in favor of numerical targets.
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