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25 Feb 2013

Forex Flash: March 1 deadline in US looms – Deutsche Bank

In the United States, congress returns on Monday after a weeklong recess ahead of spending sequesters which take effect on Friday March 1st, unless Democrats and Republicans agree to a deal beforehand. Ben Bernanke delivers his semiannual testimony on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday followed by an appearance before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

It will be heavy week of data with Tuesday's consumer confidence, new home sales and consumer confidence, Wednesday's durable goods and pending homes sales, Thursday's US Q4 GDP 2nd estimate and jobless claims; and Friday's consumer spending and the ISM. The US Treasury will auction $35bn in 2yr notes on Monday; $35bn in 5yr notes on Tuesday and $29bn 7yr notes on Wednesday.

Looking at today's calendar however, the obvious focus will be on the outcome of the Italian elections. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Ahead of the polls closing though, the Italian Treasury will be testing investor appetite with the issuance of 2021 and 2026 inflation linked bonds as well as zero coupon 2014 bonds.” Jens Weidmann speaks at an in event Paris on the topic of "Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Dancing Too Close". So we have quite a bit going on but thankfully it will be a relatively quiet day in terms of data with no major releases in Europe and US today.
Feb 25, 2013

Forex: EUR/USD upside stalls below 1.3275

As the EUR/USD retraces some of last week's losses, the chart shows an upward curve being drawn since the Asian session. However, after touching 1.3275 during the European morning, the market has stalled, trading sideways under a tight range since then.
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Feb 25, 2013

Forex Flash: Italian elections scenarios and their impact on the euro - Commerzbank

On Friday, the German ifo index upside surprised underlined that at least the German economy will probably continue to recover, but ECB's announcement that the European banks would only be repaying EUR 61.1B from the second 3-year tender (at the first opportunity to repay funds for the first 3-year tender the banks had repaid EUR 137bn.) sent the EUR/USD below the 1.32 mark.
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