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10 Feb 2016
NZD/USD remains robust despite flight to safety
NZD/USD is currently flat on the releases of the retails card sales in early Asia. Retail card spending was up 0.3% m/m vs -0.2% prior and in line with expectations.
Markets have been overdrive volatile and early Asia is no doubt on the sidelines in thin liquidity trying to digest the moves. US stocks were volatile follow yesterday's turmoil in Asia and the Yen rallying to below swing lows vs the greenback and tested the 114.20 level before a retreat.
Europe sneezes...
Credit markets in all sorts of trouble and European Banks are standing out as being heavily exposure to bad debts, especially in Em's, sitting on bad debts of €1tn – the equivalent to the GDP of Spain, according European Banking Authority (EBA).
Investors are looking to hedge such exposure in the credit derivatives index that tracks the likelihood of default of investment-grade debt of European companies and banks and the index was near its highest level since June 2013, underpinning the risk-off environment we are in with heavy supply in the greenback.
While the bird is not correlated directly to such a market, it is worth keeping an eye on as well as commodities. As tensions gather pace of the European story, the bird will be exposed on a double-sided coin. As Europe fails, or simply spends less, this will effect export and tourism sectors in New Zealand, especially as commodity prices continue to spiral, however a weak euro or dollar could be a supportive factor the bird.
NZD/USD levels
The 100 sma on the hourly chart has capped the recovery from 0.6580 and the 200 sma on the same time frame. The price is consolidating in a narrower range on the daily sticks and exposes the downside. The 100 dma at 0.6606 (S1) is first target guarding the 20 dma at 0.6520. S3 at 0.6577 needs to give first of all.
Markets have been overdrive volatile and early Asia is no doubt on the sidelines in thin liquidity trying to digest the moves. US stocks were volatile follow yesterday's turmoil in Asia and the Yen rallying to below swing lows vs the greenback and tested the 114.20 level before a retreat.
Europe sneezes...
Credit markets in all sorts of trouble and European Banks are standing out as being heavily exposure to bad debts, especially in Em's, sitting on bad debts of €1tn – the equivalent to the GDP of Spain, according European Banking Authority (EBA).
Investors are looking to hedge such exposure in the credit derivatives index that tracks the likelihood of default of investment-grade debt of European companies and banks and the index was near its highest level since June 2013, underpinning the risk-off environment we are in with heavy supply in the greenback.
While the bird is not correlated directly to such a market, it is worth keeping an eye on as well as commodities. As tensions gather pace of the European story, the bird will be exposed on a double-sided coin. As Europe fails, or simply spends less, this will effect export and tourism sectors in New Zealand, especially as commodity prices continue to spiral, however a weak euro or dollar could be a supportive factor the bird.
NZD/USD levels
The 100 sma on the hourly chart has capped the recovery from 0.6580 and the 200 sma on the same time frame. The price is consolidating in a narrower range on the daily sticks and exposes the downside. The 100 dma at 0.6606 (S1) is first target guarding the 20 dma at 0.6520. S3 at 0.6577 needs to give first of all.