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22 Feb 2016
Brexit: Campaign for the UK referendum begins in earnest - BBH
Research Team at BBH, notes that the campaign for the UK referendum begins in earnest but it is not clear that the results of the extended summit changed many minds.
Key Quotes
“Practically no agreement that could have struck would be sufficient for many of the skeptics. Similarly, Cameron seemed willing to accept nearly any offer that defended and extended the UK’s right to opt-out of the "ever closer union." London Mayor Johnson has come out in favor of Brexit. This was not fully expected and will likely weigh on sterling.
For investors, the risk of a Brexit is the product of its credibility and capability. We had thought that the credibility was relatively low. The events markets suggest around a one-in-three chance. Talking with clients in the UK, we were struck by how close of a decision many seemed to see it.
The capability or impact of Brexit would be very grave. Some large banks have already threatened to leave the UK if the EU is rejected. A few observers suggest Ireland would be a likely beneficiary as banks seek to maintain a presence in the EU. We suspect a sharp drop in sterling that we would anticipate if the Brexit camp wins the referendum could spur new interest in UK real estate.
On the other hand, there is some concern that Brexit could trigger a large, existential crisis for the EU itself. While it would certainly change the political dynamics, just as the European Union existed before the UK joined, it would most likely exist if it chose to leave. The UK's presence shapes the EU and helps draw out the tension between a broad and deep union.”
Key Quotes
“Practically no agreement that could have struck would be sufficient for many of the skeptics. Similarly, Cameron seemed willing to accept nearly any offer that defended and extended the UK’s right to opt-out of the "ever closer union." London Mayor Johnson has come out in favor of Brexit. This was not fully expected and will likely weigh on sterling.
For investors, the risk of a Brexit is the product of its credibility and capability. We had thought that the credibility was relatively low. The events markets suggest around a one-in-three chance. Talking with clients in the UK, we were struck by how close of a decision many seemed to see it.
The capability or impact of Brexit would be very grave. Some large banks have already threatened to leave the UK if the EU is rejected. A few observers suggest Ireland would be a likely beneficiary as banks seek to maintain a presence in the EU. We suspect a sharp drop in sterling that we would anticipate if the Brexit camp wins the referendum could spur new interest in UK real estate.
On the other hand, there is some concern that Brexit could trigger a large, existential crisis for the EU itself. While it would certainly change the political dynamics, just as the European Union existed before the UK joined, it would most likely exist if it chose to leave. The UK's presence shapes the EU and helps draw out the tension between a broad and deep union.”