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5 Mar 2013

Commodities Brief: Oil off fresh 2-month low sub-$90

Oil printed another lower daily low at 89.33 for the April light crude contract, lowest in 2013 so far, down for third consecutive day. Out of the 13 days since Oil printed second $98 high, it has been down 9 of them, last at 90.28, mostly unchanged from NY close, finding support at the 200 day SMA around the $90.40 mark. Daily RSI 14 enters in oversold levels for first time since late Oct as it reads 30.52 last.

Gold in the other hand is back above its previous weekly closing price Friday, last at $1580, off daily lows at $1569, retracing from past weekly highs at $1619. The precious metal has bounced from an almost 8-month low on Feb 21 around the $1555 mark, down already more than -7% since 2013 started. Silver even managed to close in the positive in NY up +0.12%, at $28.58.

Commodities overall as measured by the CRB index also gained a tiny +0.12% by NY close, as it stalls near 8-month lows, losing -4.9% for the month of Feb alone. USD index instead have gained +3.9% in same time span, last at 82.07 off fresh 5-month highs at 82.46 printed yesterday, while US 10 year bond yields have stabilized around the 1.88%, off recent fresh 10-month high at 2.05%, with 200 day SMA sitting around the 1.72% level.
Mar 5, 2013

Forex: EUR/USD at peace with 1.30 vicinity

The EUR/USD seems to be entering a period of consolidation, an indication that for now, there is an equilibrium between buyers and sellers around the all important 1.30. Last Friday first, and yesterday (Monday) next, a sequence of failed attacks to establish the price below the big round number have resulted in a period of relative calmness.
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Mar 5, 2013

Session Recap: Aussie extends recovery post RBA

The Australian Dollar was the main mover along the Asian session, after the RBA held rates unchanged at 3%, also retaining a dovish tone on its monetary policy statement, yet there seems to be growing sentiment in the market that the central bank has no urgency on further easing for the time being. AUD/USD broke through important 1.0225 resistance, threatening a descending trendline around 1.0240 now. The Aussie was also supported by strong retail sales data.
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