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21 Mar 2016
USD longs declined and EUR shorts increased - Rabobank
Jane Foley, Senior FX strategist at Rabobank, lists down the IMM net speculators’ positioning as at 15 March 2016.
Key Quotes
EUR shorts have now increased for a third consecutive week suggesting that the dovish stance of the ECB is having an impact on the currency.
USD longs declined for a sixth straight week. This is despite the firmer tone of US releases such as CPI inflation, PCE and Q4 GDP data. Although US inflation expectations have ticked higher, so has the perception that the Fed may tolerate a little more inflation rather than risk unsettling the labour market by tightening policy too soon.
JPY longs finally dropped last week from their highest levels since 2008. This coincided with a better tone in many stock markets and suggests that risk appetite has improved.
Net sterling shorts dropped back from the previous week when they increased to their highest levels since July 2013. That said, GBP remains vulnerable to uncertainty connected with Brexit and to further signs of division within the government following the resignation of the Work and Pension Secretary Duncan-Smith.
Net CHF positions pushed convincingly back into positive territory. Last week the SNB reiterated its threat that it could intervene to offset demand for the CHF.
Net AUD long positions dropped back as the minutes of the March 1 meeting showed the door to further rate cuts has been left open. CAD shorts fell for the seventh consecutive week as oil prices rose to a 3 month high.”
Key Quotes
EUR shorts have now increased for a third consecutive week suggesting that the dovish stance of the ECB is having an impact on the currency.
USD longs declined for a sixth straight week. This is despite the firmer tone of US releases such as CPI inflation, PCE and Q4 GDP data. Although US inflation expectations have ticked higher, so has the perception that the Fed may tolerate a little more inflation rather than risk unsettling the labour market by tightening policy too soon.
JPY longs finally dropped last week from their highest levels since 2008. This coincided with a better tone in many stock markets and suggests that risk appetite has improved.
Net sterling shorts dropped back from the previous week when they increased to their highest levels since July 2013. That said, GBP remains vulnerable to uncertainty connected with Brexit and to further signs of division within the government following the resignation of the Work and Pension Secretary Duncan-Smith.
Net CHF positions pushed convincingly back into positive territory. Last week the SNB reiterated its threat that it could intervene to offset demand for the CHF.
Net AUD long positions dropped back as the minutes of the March 1 meeting showed the door to further rate cuts has been left open. CAD shorts fell for the seventh consecutive week as oil prices rose to a 3 month high.”