AUD/JPY: bears taking control for a test 84.00

AUD/JPY is heavily bearish having tested the mid way point of the 84.0 handle in a continuation of the sell-off from 86.70 at the end of March's business.

the flows are through the majors and USD/JPY continues to trade sub-112 after the Nikkei's poor performance last week, which is weighing on the cross while the greenback remains mixed. For today, there are plenty of risk events for the cross in Australia's trade balance and the RBA decision later in the day. The majority of the market expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 2% at tomorrow's Board meeting.

"The likelihood of the RBA cutting in May is also slim thanks to PM Turnbull bringing forward the date for the Australian Budget to 3rd May, the same day the RBA announces its cash rate decision and a few days before the RBA issues its quarterly SoMP," argued analysts at TD Securities.

AUD/JPY levels

AUD/JPY is drifting to the downside on the 84 handle. A break below 84.00 would be significant as would be the last defence before a snap of the middle of March's support line at with the 200 sma on the 4hr chart at 83.88. A break there looks for 82.40/50 and then territory in the middle Feb sideways, albeit wide, channel.