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7 Mar 2013
Forex: EUR/USD falls to 2013 lows and opens the door to further loses
After consolidating loses between 1.2980 and 1.2995, the EUR/USD has finally broken previous lows to trade at 1.2960, minimums since December 11. Below the 1.3000 level, the pair has opened the bearish momentum and the 1.2900 level is also vital to contain, or not, bears.
On Wednesday, the greenback was broadly higher fueled by stronger-than-expected ADP employment report, which highlights improvement in the labor market ahead of the NFP on Friday. lately the USD is trading on pro-risk mode and its negative correlation with equities has been broken. US stocks have risen on economic data, so the USD.
The euro sentiment is weak just ahead the ECB announcement. and regarding the ECB decision, Camilla Sutton, Chief Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, coincides with the broader market consensus and expects the ECB to leave the refi rate intact at 0.75%, focusing however on Draghi’s presser. “Accordingly, though we expect that President Draghi ultimately turns more dovish and weighs on EUR; we expect that tomorrow’s press conference is in line with February’s”, remarked the expert.
The EUR/USD resumed its slide on Wednesday and fell below the 1.3000 round level with Italy's political uncertainty also weighing on the shared currency. EUR/USD is now down 0.61% at 1.2970. As for the short term, next support levels align at 1.2966 (2013 low Mar.1) followed by 1.2929 (low Dec.11). On the upside, a breakout of 1.3075 (high Mar.5) would expose 1.3080 (MA10d) and then 1.3101 (high Mar.1).
Technical indicators remain bearish at this point, favoring a fall towards 1.2900/08 (psychological level/ Fib 76.4% of 1.2660/1.3710) ahead of the 1.2880 zone. However, some consolidation is expected ahead of the central bank decision and the US jobs report. On the other hand, a break above 1.3100 could encourage buyers and lift the pair, although regain of the 1.3160 area (Feb 28 high) would improve the outlook.
The Bank's day ahead
The Thursday will start with the BoJ decision in the Asian session. USD/JPY investors will pay special attention as the pair has jumped above the 94.00 level. Another banks that will release its monetary policy decision will be the BoE and the ECB. Market players must pay attention also to the German Factory orders and the US jobless claims.
- BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- BoE Interest Rate Decision and Asset Purchase Facility size
- ECB Interest Rate Decision and the Draghi's press conference
On Wednesday, the greenback was broadly higher fueled by stronger-than-expected ADP employment report, which highlights improvement in the labor market ahead of the NFP on Friday. lately the USD is trading on pro-risk mode and its negative correlation with equities has been broken. US stocks have risen on economic data, so the USD.
The euro sentiment is weak just ahead the ECB announcement. and regarding the ECB decision, Camilla Sutton, Chief Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, coincides with the broader market consensus and expects the ECB to leave the refi rate intact at 0.75%, focusing however on Draghi’s presser. “Accordingly, though we expect that President Draghi ultimately turns more dovish and weighs on EUR; we expect that tomorrow’s press conference is in line with February’s”, remarked the expert.
The EUR/USD resumed its slide on Wednesday and fell below the 1.3000 round level with Italy's political uncertainty also weighing on the shared currency. EUR/USD is now down 0.61% at 1.2970. As for the short term, next support levels align at 1.2966 (2013 low Mar.1) followed by 1.2929 (low Dec.11). On the upside, a breakout of 1.3075 (high Mar.5) would expose 1.3080 (MA10d) and then 1.3101 (high Mar.1).
Technical indicators remain bearish at this point, favoring a fall towards 1.2900/08 (psychological level/ Fib 76.4% of 1.2660/1.3710) ahead of the 1.2880 zone. However, some consolidation is expected ahead of the central bank decision and the US jobs report. On the other hand, a break above 1.3100 could encourage buyers and lift the pair, although regain of the 1.3160 area (Feb 28 high) would improve the outlook.
The Bank's day ahead
The Thursday will start with the BoJ decision in the Asian session. USD/JPY investors will pay special attention as the pair has jumped above the 94.00 level. Another banks that will release its monetary policy decision will be the BoE and the ECB. Market players must pay attention also to the German Factory orders and the US jobless claims.
- BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- BoE Interest Rate Decision and Asset Purchase Facility size
- ECB Interest Rate Decision and the Draghi's press conference