GBP’s risk premia declining - BNPP

Research Team at BNP Paribas, notes that the GBP continues to hold onto its gains as an additional ORB/Daily Telegraph poll was released late on Monday showing “remain” ahead by 53% to 46%.

Key Quotes

“Our BNP Paribas FX Positioning Analysis has been indicating that short GBP positioning has been building in recent weeks, reaching a score of -36, setting the stage for Monday’s squeeze. Meanwhile, GBPUSD has moved from trading 1 z-score “cheap” to our STEER™ model to now trading slightly rich to its short-term fair value. Meanwhile, the ‘risk-premia’ according to CLEER™ (our macro based model) has narrowed to just 2%.

GBP is likely to remain choppy in the days ahead, with today’s recovery once again leaving the currency vulnerable if polls begin to shift again and reducing scope for a relief rally in the aftermath of the vote.”