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8 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: NFP´s are of course the headline ahead - BTMU
Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the headline event today is of course NFP´s and a view based on other incoming employment data suggests that the labour market is certainly improving.
He writes, “The ADP employment reading for February and the upward revision to previous months now leaves the 3mth average at 207k – while private sector payrolls in the non-farm report tends to be higher suggesting the trend there should improve.” Further, he adds that the private nonfarm payrolls average was 39k more in H2 2012 and the 3mth average was 24k more. He feels that the only issue today is the potential distortion due to the snowstorm that hit the east coast just ahead of the sample week. He comments. “Those unable to work that week will be counted as lost jobs and hence a distortion in the data is possible. Still, assuming we can get an accurate picture of the underlying jobs picture, we expect that picture to be positive and hence be supportive for the dollar.”
He writes, “The ADP employment reading for February and the upward revision to previous months now leaves the 3mth average at 207k – while private sector payrolls in the non-farm report tends to be higher suggesting the trend there should improve.” Further, he adds that the private nonfarm payrolls average was 39k more in H2 2012 and the 3mth average was 24k more. He feels that the only issue today is the potential distortion due to the snowstorm that hit the east coast just ahead of the sample week. He comments. “Those unable to work that week will be counted as lost jobs and hence a distortion in the data is possible. Still, assuming we can get an accurate picture of the underlying jobs picture, we expect that picture to be positive and hence be supportive for the dollar.”