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      11 Mar 2013

      Forex: NZD/USD tries to set a base at 0.82

      After briefly breaching the 0.82 mark on the back of a strong NFP number last Friday, with 0.8197 now the lowest of the year for the Kiwi, the pair has been picking up ever since, and is now pressing against 0.8225. The area may act as supply, just as it did in the slide from Feb 27 and the half-hearted attempt of recovery in the last New York session.

      From a broader perspective, the NZD/USD is trading heavy below a broken multi-month ascending trendline, with price now intending to set a consolidation phase between 0.82 and 0.8310/20. If the Kiwi is to ease the ongoing selling interest, only a break and hold of the latter level may qualify as a first evidence that bulls are coming back with force.

      Unless that is achieved - a tough road lies ahead -, sellers will likely continue to be active around key intraday resistances, for example at 0.8250, swing low from Feb 8, ahead of 0.8290/0.83, high of the NFP sell-off last Friday.
      Mar 11, 2013

      Forex Flash: RBNZ to first hike rates in Dec 2013 - BNZ

      The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will begin hiking rates in December this year and "the cash rate will then be progressively raised to a 'new neutral' of 4.5% in the following 15 months" notes Craig Ebert, analyst at the bank.
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      Mar 11, 2013

      Forex Flash: USD a buy on dips; AUD lower - NAB

      “With too many potential negatives in other major currencies and no signs of QE-dollars leaking abroad as a result, it is difficult for now to hold anything other than a buy USD on dips view,” strategists at the NAB say, expanding: “We believe the AUD can leak lower again without the need for domestic data to turn for the worse and RBA rate cut hopes to revive, in particular if the USD continues to trade with a steadier/firmer tone.”
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