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12 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: Sell AUD/NZD rallies on RBA/RBNZ risks - UBS
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on March 13, and according to UBS economics, "the official
cash interest rate is set to remain unchanged at 2.5%, with the key areas of interest in the statement will be discussion of
the 'over-valued' NZ dollar and house price inflation/household credit that the central bank is 'watching closely'" they say. The bank still expects the next move "as being a hike for the RBNZ" UBS notes.
UBS adds: "In contrast, the RBA in its latest meeting kept interest rates at 3.0% while retaining an easing bias. In its statement the RBA suggested the labour market was 'softening somewhat'. This is likely to be in response to Australia's great mining capex boom peaking. As a result investors should watch February's employment report in the week ahead to see if the jobless rate starts to trend higher from its current historically low level of 5.4%."
The bank suggests that "given the balance of these risks, we prefer to be sellers of AUDNZD rallies."
cash interest rate is set to remain unchanged at 2.5%, with the key areas of interest in the statement will be discussion of
the 'over-valued' NZ dollar and house price inflation/household credit that the central bank is 'watching closely'" they say. The bank still expects the next move "as being a hike for the RBNZ" UBS notes.
UBS adds: "In contrast, the RBA in its latest meeting kept interest rates at 3.0% while retaining an easing bias. In its statement the RBA suggested the labour market was 'softening somewhat'. This is likely to be in response to Australia's great mining capex boom peaking. As a result investors should watch February's employment report in the week ahead to see if the jobless rate starts to trend higher from its current historically low level of 5.4%."
The bank suggests that "given the balance of these risks, we prefer to be sellers of AUDNZD rallies."