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12 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: Global equities looking ahead and pricing upturn – NAB
Although global equity markets have risen strongly since last November, growth in economic activity has remained quite soft. The pace of expansion in world trade and industrial output did, however, lift toward the end of last year and the business surveys have become more optimistic.
According to the NAB Research Team, “The slowdown in global growth through last year was broadly based with falling GDP in the UK, Euro-zone and Japan in December and stagnation in US output.” The disconnect between the upturn in equity prices and real economic data partly reflects lowered risk aversion, as the tail risks of Euro-zone break-up, Chinese hard landing and renewed US recession have faded. However markets also seem to be looking ahead and pricing-in a global economic upturn that does seem to be on the way – albeit in our view a 2014 story.
According to the NAB Research Team, “The slowdown in global growth through last year was broadly based with falling GDP in the UK, Euro-zone and Japan in December and stagnation in US output.” The disconnect between the upturn in equity prices and real economic data partly reflects lowered risk aversion, as the tail risks of Euro-zone break-up, Chinese hard landing and renewed US recession have faded. However markets also seem to be looking ahead and pricing-in a global economic upturn that does seem to be on the way – albeit in our view a 2014 story.