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13 Mar 2013

Forex Flash: Expecting softer US growth in Q2 and NFP below 100K in April and May – Merrill Lynch

Merrill Lynch have their saying on global growth expectations: “The global recovery since 2Q 2012 has been supported by reviving growth in EM Asia and resilient activity in the US. Looking ahead, improving global capex bodes well for EM Asia”, they wrote, expecting softer US growth in Q2, “but healthier underlying momentum points to limited downside risks”.

However, in regard to the US, the sequester should put the “above-consensus data reports” momentum at risk: “We expect job growth to drop below 100,000 as sequester-related job cuts are implemented in April and May”.

When it comes to Japan, Euro area: ECB - not as bland as you think the nominees for BoJ governor and deputy governor said before the lower house committee that “they would intend to extend the maturities of JGBs eligible for purchase, move up the switch to an open-ended asset purchasing method, and revise the banknote rule”.
Mar 13, 2013

Forex Flash: US inflation rate of 2% likely in the cards – NAB

With FOMC members also expecting - consistent with their longer-term objective - inflation of around 2.0% this equates to a real (i.e. after inflation) interest rate of around 2-2.25% which is around our view; albeit slightly higher. Is a 2% inflation rate going forward reasonable?
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Mar 13, 2013

Forex Flash: White smoke over Westminster? - Societe Generale

Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale recalls that the outgoing pope was affable, down to earth, funny, and enjoyed his Bavarian food. This is how his family saw them during decades of interaction. However, many see him in a completely different light and in this sense context matters He writes, “Moving from one to the other is the equivalent of a change in regime. GBP is a typical example of this.”
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