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13 Mar 2013

Forex Flash: EUR/GBP move could change quickly given EUR stasis – UBS

According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “For investors tracking the sterling's performance against a basket of currencies looking for valuation 'turns', the EUR/GBP valuation could occur more rapidly compared to the GBP/USD. This fits the fundamental view as well – excessive euro appreciation is probably something the Eurozone is still not ready for at this stage, and as investors begin to price in the growth/monetary consequences, GBP would be in a position to benefit.”

Of course, mean-reversion in currency valuations is often subjective and subject to further shifts in economic progression (i.e. trend catching up to spot on a persistent basis), but now that the move in sterling has begun in earnest, these factors should play a bigger role up ahead. Unfortunately, waiting for extremes to develop does mean further weakness can be expected.
Mar 13, 2013

Forex Flash: White smoke over Westminster? - Societe Generale

Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale recalls that the outgoing pope was affable, down to earth, funny, and enjoyed his Bavarian food. This is how his family saw them during decades of interaction. However, many see him in a completely different light and in this sense context matters He writes, “Moving from one to the other is the equivalent of a change in regime. GBP is a typical example of this.”
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Mar 13, 2013

Forex: GBP/USD keeps the mood above 1.4900

The sterling is resuming its upside after falling to the area of 1.4900/10 on solid results from the US retail sales during February, surpassing expectations and adding buying pressure to the greenback...
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