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    13 Mar 2013

    Forex: AUD/USD found support at 1.0280; back to 1.0300

    Following a 45 pips decline from 1.0325, the Australian dollar found support against its American counterpart at 1.0280 where the pair bounced to trade above the 1.0300 level. Currently the AUD/USD is trading at 1.0300.

    With 0.17% daily losses, the pair is slightly bearish according to the FXstreet.com Trend Index. MACD, CCI and Momentum indicators are bearish while the Stochastic is bullish in the 1-hour timeframe.

    Above the 1.0300, resistances come 1.0310, March 11 high, and 1.0335, March 12 and today's high. Next supports are at 1.0280, today's low, 1.0265, March 12 low, and the MA 200 hours at 1.0245
    Mar 13, 2013

    Forex Flash: Range trade 10-year US treasuries look to continue – RBS

    The market continues to see a 1.70% to 2.13% range in 10-year US Treasuries. According to the RBS Research Team, “The key support remains 2.13% for 10y-years while the near-term resistance is 1.80%, a break through here should see extension to 1.70%. In addition, momentum measures are mixed – suggesting that the range trade will continue.”
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    Mar 13, 2013

    Forex Flash: Could GBP return to risk-traded currency? – UBS

    Right until the recent crisis, it appears that investors were on a structural level over-optimistic ('irrational exuberance' springs to mind). Central bank puts (pre-crisis) and imbalances could not defy gravity and everything came to head in 2008. Ever since, the market has probably learned to keep expectations to the bare minimum, and count on the economy to consistently outperform. This way, the process reinforces itself and a positive cycle develops as activity levels rise higher than expectations. According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “For some reason, the process is working in the opposite way in the UK. Data consistently disappoints, which leads to weaker expectations - and crucially - even weaker activity. The asymmetry suggests some element of 'loss aversion' in play: economic agents are unwilling to invest because expectations are weak, rather than take the risk to capture potentially outsized gains (via first-mover advantage).”
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