Forex: AUD/USD, struggles at 1.03/1.0340 supply ahead of Aus jobs

The Australian Dollar, despite improved technicals for short term bulls after a structural change of its bearish tendency by breaking and spending some time above 1.03, still faces the prospects of heavy supply at the 1.03-1.0340 territory, disallowing further progress ahead of the Australian jobs number, key data due at 00.30GMT.

As noted by Eamonn Sheridan, editor at Forexlive, "market expectations centre on 10,000 jobs added during the month, with unemployment expected to show a slight uptick to 5.5%."

Eamonn speculates that a much better result "will likely see AUD/USD up testing resistance around 1.0335 and then around 1.0355, while a big miss, likely sees a test of 1.0280 support, with 1.0230 the next level down" he said.

According to Sean Lee, founder at FXWW: "Today’s unemployment data might provide some minor volatility but the pair has been unable to move on big Chinese and US data dumps so don’t get your hopes up too high."

The Australian jobs report, depending on the data, is certainly the type of catalyst that should prompt a large imbalance between buyers and sellers, necessary to unravel price away from its current broad range between 1.0265/80 demand - as er March 12 spike - and 1.0340 supply - mentioned above.

Note, even if 1.0340 gives in, 1.0350-1.0370 is another arduous resistance ahead, not tested since the sharp fall on March 21.