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14 Mar 2013

Forex Flash: USD is a 'heads I win, tails you lose' case; Rally to continue short term - HSBC

Since the 16-month high of 1.3710 reached February 1st, the EUR/USD has lost 800 pips to today's low of 1.2910. The pair turned negative on the YTD chart and currently it is trading 1.66% down on 2013.

With the pair below the 1.3000 mark the HSBC expects the USD rally "to continue in the short term." According to the bank, "there appears to be an asymmetric bias where both strong positive and negative data could cause the USD to strengthen."

Heat Map euro dollar

HSBC states that the current situation in the USD "seems, for now, to be a case of: heads I win, tails you lose." as they believe "that standout positive economic releases could lead the market to reassess the potential timing of a change in Fed policy, which would have a strong positive USD impact." Keep in mind that the FOMC will announce its policy and rate decision on March 20th.

However, "while tactically we [HSBC] see this type of market reaction, any short term rally in the USD is unlikely to
be sustained." The bank's forecast is the EUR/USD March ending march at 1.30. The 3-month price at 1.296 and the 1 year forecast at 1.2710.
Mar 14, 2013

Forex Flash: Tracing the potential rise of US bond yields – Goldman Sachs

“Simply rolling along the path towards the first US rate hike and the end of the balance sheet expansion should put steady upward pressure on bond yields over the next few years. This may be mitigated to a degree this year, as the market shifts towards a more dovish view of the Fed’s reaction function.” states the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs. However, this is likely to be a temporary reprieve. The exercises here clearly highlight the risk that yields may rise faster over the next few years than our current forecasts, or the forwards, suggest.
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Mar 14, 2013

Forex Flash: US growth expected to accelerate in 2014 – Goldman Sachs

According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “We expect below-trend annual growth of +1.8% in 2013 and an acceleration to +2.9% in 2014. Growth should then remain slightly above that rate in 2015 and 2016. On an annualized sequential basis, we expect a rebound to +2.3% in 2013Q1 and a slowdown to +1.5% and +2% in 2013Q2 and Q3, before a pick-up to +2.5% in the last quarter of the year.”
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