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      15 Mar 2013

      A mercurial euro set sails to 1.3100

      FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Curious path this one the single currency has been transiting for the last couple of sessions, dipping to yearly lows in the vicinity of 1.2910/15 just to test weekly highs around 1.3070 hours later. So, what happened? Nothing literally in the space data, as the euro docket lacked the ability to trigger any significant movement in the present week. Furthermore, the feeling of a shift in sentiment remained hovering over investors, mainly one that positively correlated US improvement with risk appetite, as confirmed by the recent all-time highs in both the Dow and the S&P.

      … A change in the broader trend?

      However, it would be premature to tell that this last price action represents in fact a change in the wider frame, which remains bearish so far. Still there is a long way up to change the current stance in the euro, and of course it must be accompanied by a parallel improvement in the economic fundamentals and a more solid and foreseeable political scenario, in Italy for starters.

      The US recovery has now become a double-edged sword for euro bulls, as it points both towards a better risk appetite mood and the likeliness of the Fed anticipating its exit from the ongoing QE programme, the latter which is supportive of the greenback.

      When comes to technicals, the EUR/USD is trading closer to the resistance at the down-trend line set from February highs, currently around 1.3085/90 and reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the summer 2012 - February 2013 upside.
      Further upside should find the next barrier at 1.3134 (March 8th high), followed by 1.3191 (100-day moving average) and then the 55-day moving average at 1.3284
      The daily RSI still navigates below the 50% threshold, claiming that more time is needed to confirm any upside.
      Mar 15, 2013

      Forex Flash: More LTRO repayment, new Italian Parliament and Cyprus today – TD Securities

      From the Euro area today, TD Securities expect another sub €10bn repayment in the 3-year LTROs, “but unless we see a significant upside surprise, the announcement today and over coming weeks is likely to have little market impact”. Also, the new Italian parliament is sworn in today, “where the negotiations toward forming a workable coalition begin”. “The President next week begins to sit down with parties on forming a government and the Chamber of Deputies and Senate discuss naming a President to head each House, so headline risk once again returns, while it is still likely it takes at least two weeks at the earliest before we may get close to forming a government”, wrote analyst Tim Davis.
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      Mar 15, 2013

      Forex Flash: US surveys today predominantly USD-positive – TD Securities

      The CAD has benefiting from USD selling, being lifted to new highs for March. “We continue to foresee a lower CAD for the months ahead, but near term risks suggest a possibility for a decent pullback from recent losses”, wrote analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, adding that “the potential for a positive turn in Canadian data starting next week, combined with the currently enormous short speculative positioning could be a recipe for near term CAD gains”.
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