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19 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: US/German 2 yr int rate differentials continue to indicate USD strength - BBH
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note that the US-German 2-year interest rate differential continues to move in a dollar-supportive direction.
They see that at 23bp today, it is the largest US premium since the start of the year. Further, the gap created by yesterday´s sharply lower opening in the Euro is found between yesterday's high at 1.2970 and Friday´s low at 1.3000. They feel that this area is important technically and even more so given that it is on the weekly charts. They write, “In contrast, we note the US-Japanese 10-year spread, at 133 bp is near its 10-day low. This would seem to have a more negative dollar factor than is reflected in prices. The dollar filled its gap and more against the yen. It surpassed retracement levels seen from the March 12 high near JPY96.70. We now peg support for the greenback near JPY95.00.”
They see that at 23bp today, it is the largest US premium since the start of the year. Further, the gap created by yesterday´s sharply lower opening in the Euro is found between yesterday's high at 1.2970 and Friday´s low at 1.3000. They feel that this area is important technically and even more so given that it is on the weekly charts. They write, “In contrast, we note the US-Japanese 10-year spread, at 133 bp is near its 10-day low. This would seem to have a more negative dollar factor than is reflected in prices. The dollar filled its gap and more against the yen. It surpassed retracement levels seen from the March 12 high near JPY96.70. We now peg support for the greenback near JPY95.00.”