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27 Mar 2013

Forex Flash: All Roads leading to Rome... again - BBH

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Brown Brothers Harriman analysts believe that Italy´s unresolved political situation is coming back to the fore.

They feel that this is evident with the new pressure on Italian bonds. They see that the 2-10yr yields are up around 15 bp, a bit more than prior to the lukewarm, but acceptable bond auction. They note that the center-left Bersani appears poised to tell the president he cannot put together a government and the lack of cooperation between the three main groupings (the PD's center-left, the PDL's center-right and Grillo's 5-Star Movement) has given rise to speculation of a new technocrat government.

They write, “While this is possible, we suspect there may be another attempt by Bersani's rival for PD leadership, the Florence mayor, Renzi, who has better relations with the center-right. Bersani ran a weak campaign, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, and now has failed to find the mechanism to form a government. Renzi's candidacy may alienate the left wing of the coalition, which itself make a deal with the centrists, like Monti, and the center-right more likely.”
Mar 27, 2013

Forex Flash: Poor UK growth means EUR/GBP selling may have peaked- Societe Generale

Senior FX Strategist at Societe Generale, Sebastien Galy notes that UK growth was confirmed as poor and the theme of selling EUR vs GBP may have now peaked.
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Mar 27, 2013

Forex Flash: EUR/CAD potential for strong, counter-trend rally is limited – TD Securities

The EUR/CAD is becoming under a strong trend lower: “Weakness below noted support in the 1.32 zone this week pointed to a move towards 1.27/1.29, we noted earlier this week”, wrote analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, suggesting that the move lower may be moderating in the short run, “but we rather think that, as trend momentum remains bearish across a range of short-term time frames and longer-term price signals have turned negative, the potential for a strong, counter-trend rally is limited”. “We have to expect good resistance now on modest rebounds to the 1.31 area”, concluded the TD Securities analysts.
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