Fundamental/political wrap: reflation trade under pressure, dollar goes bid
From a fundamental and political perspective, we have sand storms kicking up again in the Middle East, this time with Israeli PM Netanyahu who has said he will reveal Iran's 'secret nuclear files'.
They may be possible propaganda in a joint effort between the US and Isreal to sway Macron and Merkel away from the Iran nuclear deal, (The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), an agreement reached in Vienna on 14 July 2015 between Iran, the P5+1 plus Germany and the European Union. This comes just before Trump's 'deadline' on Iranian sanctions on the 12th May. This sent oil higher as the market braces for sanctions on Iranian oil again.
UPDATE: US Official confirms authenticity information provided by Israel
Meanwhile, as traders keep ears to the ground for further ME headlines, heading northeast, the economic backdrop in Europe is concerning. The data there has been leading to growing doubt over the consensus of a synchronized global growth theme and the reflation trade is back under pressure. The dollar is higher and commodities are looking vulnerable, (oil is propping up the complex, for now).
Key headlines (source LiveSquawk):
- Israeli PM Netanyahu accuses Iran of cheating on agreement
- Oil jumps as Netanyahu warns on Iran nuclear weapons
- US pres. Trump: nixing Iran nuclear deal would not hurt n.Korea talks
- US Tsy Sec. Mnuchin: Trump yet to decide on metals tariff exemptions
- Canadian PM Trudeau: us tariffs on steel, aluminum a 'very bad idea'
- US seen issuing $75 bln in net marketable debt in Q2, down $101 bln from prev
- EU trade chief makes final bid to ward off us tariffs
- EU's Barnier warns of no Brexit deal without border backstop
- Scottish labour, Lib Dems reject Brexit powers offer
- Italy coalition talks foundering, five star floats idea of another election