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3 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: GBP: Digging deeper into flows - Nomura
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura strategist Geoffrey Kendrick notes that following last week’s Q4 2012 balance of payments and yesterday’s February nonresident gilt buying data, he has outlined a comprehensive basic-balance approach to GBP analysis.
He feels that within the current account, he notes the importance of the decline in the income balance to overall current account weakness. Importantly, however, he sees that a good bounce in the bank income balance saw this component begin to recover in Q4. He writes, “Within the financial account, we note the inherent volatility of the data at both the aggregate and component levels, due mostly to the dominance of the banking sector in the data. From a bottom-up perspective, we note the continuation of very strong inflows to buy Gilts, with some GBP22bn in Q4 and GBP19bn in the first two months of 2013 alone.”
He feels that within the current account, he notes the importance of the decline in the income balance to overall current account weakness. Importantly, however, he sees that a good bounce in the bank income balance saw this component begin to recover in Q4. He writes, “Within the financial account, we note the inherent volatility of the data at both the aggregate and component levels, due mostly to the dominance of the banking sector in the data. From a bottom-up perspective, we note the continuation of very strong inflows to buy Gilts, with some GBP22bn in Q4 and GBP19bn in the first two months of 2013 alone.”