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13 Aug 2018

AUD/USD: emerging market trade cross-flows tapping into case for a test of 2001-2018 uptrend line at 0.7191

  • AUD/USD has been one of the worst hit in the development of the TRY since Friday's mayhem in the FX space.
  • AUD/USD is currently trading at  0.7263 and made a high of 0.7300 and a low of 0.7257 so far. 

AUD/USD has been hit hard in risk-off play considering the ties that it has to the EM markets in respect to cross-currents in Chinese business with emerging-market commodity suppliers and China-exporter nations such as South Africa that sends about 20 per cent of their goods to China - (USD/ZAR rallied from 13.36 to 15.4654 in the last few days).   

  • Black Swan Friday (that we should have seen coming) as it happened - Turkey risk and the tide of US dollar funding
  • The pain is evident in raw material prices as well with The Bloomberg Commodity Index slumping back towards July's lows (that were the lowest levels since August 2017).  Industrial metal prices have also been weak and copper specifically has been a weight on the Aussie in the face of a flight to the DXY that has taken on fresh yearly highs of 96.52. 

All eyes are on Berat Albayrak, Turkey's finance minister and his action plan 

Meanwhile, all eyes on how Turkey's finance minister and his action plan pans out and more importantly, how dealers react to theCBRT, (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), cut in the reserve requirements ratio for banks where they are looking to Turkey's banks to provide cheap credit to drive growth.

Dealers have been unimpressed so farm that is evident in last night's whitewash in the Lira with USD/TRY completing a rally of 40% just on last week's business alone. Also, credit default swaps have spiked to multi-year highs- (FX option prices have even exceeded the peaks seen around the global financial crisis and USD/TRY remains on its knees on the 7.00 handle).

Domestically, this week is a key one for Aussie traders with the data on tap with employment on Wed and business conditions tonight. 

AUD/USD levels

Analysts at Commerzbank noted that AUD/USD broke out of its recent consolidation and so far dropped to its current August low at 0.7257:

"Below this level the cross is capable of a slide to the 2001-2018 uptrend line at 0.7191. Resistance comes in at the early and late July lows at 0.7311/19. " However, they argued that above the downtrend would challenge the 0.7676 June high and the 0.7655 200 day ma."

Aug 13, 2018

US: Production from 7 shale formations to rise 93,000 bpd in Sept. to 7.5 million bpd - EIA

In a recently published monthly report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that oil production from seven major shale basins was ex
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Aug 13, 2018

Turkish finance minister to hold investor call on Thursday - Reuters

Citing sources familiar with the matter, Reuters recently reported that the Turkish finance minister will hold an investor call on Thursday. There was
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