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7 Feb 2013

Forex: USD/CAD pushing to session highs

The Canadian dollar is quickly losing terrain against the greenback on Thursday, after Draghi’s dovish tone in his press conference after the ECB left intact the repo rate at 0.75%, widely in line with estimates.

“The slide below Monday’s low undermines the broader basing signals we had noted earlier this week but the market has rebounded from the intraday low so far and a firm/firmer close on the day may push the balance of risks back towards a short-term squeeze up… We may have to push well through 0.9920 (40-day MA) or above 1.00 to get a stronger sense of direction now”, explains the FX research team at TD Securities.

At the moment, the cross is up 0.31% at 0.9989
Next resistance levels align at 0.9995 (MA10d) ahead of 1.0088 (Upper Bollinger) and 1.0101 (highs. Jan.25/28).
On the downside, a drop beyond 0.9944 (MA21d) would expose 0.9941 (daily cloud top) and finally 0.9924 (61.8% of 0.9815-1.0101).
Feb 7, 2013

Gold trading at $1678.40

Gold’s near-term structure improved slightly Thursday, as the price broke again above the triangle resistance and held in the upper area of redefined range, as the floor raised towards the 1666 zone (06/05 February lows). According to Slobodan Drvenica an analyst at Windsor Brokers Ltd., “With a near-term focus being shifted higher, further range-trading could be anticipated, while the upper boundary at 1684 stays intact.”
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Feb 7, 2013

Forex Flash: What to expect out of Japanese policymakers – Goldman Sachs

Beyond the question of whether Japanese policymakers achieve success, a good anchoring point is to look at what a complete exit from a deep liquidity trap like Japan’s would look like across asset markets. According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “As an economy moves into a liquidity trap, nominal rates become unable to fall below the zero bound. The result is that real rates remain above where they would naturally be and the real (and nominal) exchange rate tends to be stronger than it would otherwise be. As a result, local asset markets are also weaker than otherwise, reflecting an excessively high real interest rate structure.”
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