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8 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: China trade data any minute; could have considerable impact - Westpac
Trader continue to wait for the China’s Jan trade data, which has a tentative time for publication. According to Westpac currency analyst Sean Callow, "it could have considerable impact."
"The time is not fixed but the Dec data came out at 1pm Syd/10am Sing/HK (sometimes it is later). The 14.1% y/y jump in exports in Dec produced a 50 pip gain in AUD/USD and risks look to be for an upside surprise today too. Markets will respond to the deviation from the Bloomberg median of 17.5% y/y on exports, 23.5% y/y on imports" he notes.
Sean adds: "Those are strong reads but could easily be beaten simply due to an extra five working days in Jan 2013 vs Jan 2012, with lunar new year holidays falling entirely in Jan 2012 and in Feb 2013. Of course this means Feb trade numbers should be very weak but for today, an export number in the mid-20%s, even near 30% seems plausible (the most bullish forecast is 31% y/y)."
"The time is not fixed but the Dec data came out at 1pm Syd/10am Sing/HK (sometimes it is later). The 14.1% y/y jump in exports in Dec produced a 50 pip gain in AUD/USD and risks look to be for an upside surprise today too. Markets will respond to the deviation from the Bloomberg median of 17.5% y/y on exports, 23.5% y/y on imports" he notes.
Sean adds: "Those are strong reads but could easily be beaten simply due to an extra five working days in Jan 2013 vs Jan 2012, with lunar new year holidays falling entirely in Jan 2012 and in Feb 2013. Of course this means Feb trade numbers should be very weak but for today, an export number in the mid-20%s, even near 30% seems plausible (the most bullish forecast is 31% y/y)."