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21 Feb 2019

AUD/USD rallied as Australian jobs data beat expectations

  • The AUD/USD pair crossed 0.7200 mark on positive employment details early on Thursday.
  • The employment change beat 15.0K market consensus with a huge 39.1 figure while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0% during January 2019.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) increased nearly 50 pips to mark the intraday high of 0.7206 against the USD during initial Asian trading on Thursday. The pair took advantage of the employment change that beat the market consensus with a huge margin.

Before the data, analysts at TD securities said, 

January is seasonally a weak month for employment as seasonal jobs are no longer required, but this is adequately captured by the seasonal adjustment process. We look for +20k jobs for January, and with an unchanged participation rate of 65.6% leaves the unemployment rate at 5.0% (mkt +15k and +5.0%). An average monthly addition of +20k/m leaves the unemployment rate steady at 5%, which is the RBA’s expectation. The Bank's downside risks will be exacerbated if the unemployment rate starts to creep towards 6% again.

With the Aussie data checking recent doubts over the rate hike bias of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), investors may now move forward towards other catalysts to determine near-term moves.

Among them, developments concerning the US and China trade talks will be in the front line as China’s Vice Premier Liu He will arrive in Washington for a two-day negotiation with the US diplomats. Recent news is signaling a tough road ahead for the US-Sino negotiators as the US is likely adding currency manipulation to its demand list.

In addition to their previous proposals for property right security and China's economic restructure, the US leaders are likely to put forward their demand to cap the Chinese Yuan (CNY). Such a proposal was recently criticized by the ex-Fed Chair, Janet Yellen.

Technical analysis

Successful break of 0.7200 is required for the AUD/USD pair to aim for 0.7235 and the 0.7280 whereas 0.7310 may entertain bulls afterward.

On the downside, 0.7155 and 0.7125 can act as immediate support before highlighting 0.7100 and 0.7080 as rest-points.

Feb 21, 2019

Australia labor market stays solid in January, employment change blows past expectations

Australia’s jobs market remains a bright spot for the economy, figures published by the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released soon before pres
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Feb 21, 2019

AUD/NZD enroute to 38.2% fibo target in 1.0560s following Aussie jobs blockbuster

AUD/NZD has been treading on thin ice of late, technically speaking. The cross has withstood a series of downbeat economic data and dovish rhetoric bu
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