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15 Apr 2013

Lack of direction persists in the euro

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The shared currency remains trapped within the 1.30-1.31 range at the beginning of the week, extending the soft tone since last Friday and with the G20 meeting on Thursday and Friday as the most relevant event. The gathering is not expected to have a high impact on the FX markets, however the recent announcements of the BoJ would be in the centre of attention.

… No news is good news?

The Cypriot front remains unexpectedly quiet so far, with the last news that the island would now need more money than previously though of, perhaps around €23 billion. Capital controls are still prevailing in the economy without any signal of the government halting these distortive measures any time soon.

Italy remains the black hole nowadays, although the Parliament will elect the successor of Giorgio Napolitano as President towards the end of the week. In the meantime, there is not even the slightest hint at some sort of agreement between the three main political leaders at the moment: Bersani, Berlusconi and Grillo. This remains one of the highest hurdle for the euro bulls, as Italy represents the third economy of the bloc, behind Germany and France.

In the meantime, the increasing outflows from the Japanese investors in their quest for yield would remain the sole support for the EUR/USD, bypassing the worrisome fundamentals of the bloc, at least in the near term and as long as the former issues in Cyprus and Italy persist.

From the technical point of view, the region of 1.3115/20 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the February-April slide) would be the initial hurdle. Further bullish impulse would target 1.3138/40, where converge the weekly highs and the 55-day moving average, en route to 1.3150 (100-day moving average) and then 1.3231 (50% Fib. retracement).
On the downside, the first relevant support sits at the psychological mark at 1.3000 ahead of the key 200-day moving average at 1.2900/10.
Apr 15, 2013

Forex Flash: Slovenia in focus as bailout signals mount – Investec

There was renewed focus on the Eurozone periphery during the latter stages of last week as news flowed late in the London session that EU finance ministers had agreed to increase the maturities of emergency loans to Ireland and Portugal from the Euro area by seven years. However, according to the Investec Analyst Team, “The move should help to smooth the return of the two countries' to full market financing, although Portugal still looks vulnerable in this respect given the rejection by its constitutional court cast last week of various austerity measures.”
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Apr 15, 2013

Forex: USD/CHF tests European session low, at 0.9286

As the European morning comes to an end and the market prepares for the NY opening, investors found the USD/CHF to be too expensive above the 0.9300 ground (0.9314 high printed earlier) and is testing the current European shift low, at 0.9286. Ahead, NY empire state manufacturing index, TIC flows and NAHB housing market index will be priced in.
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