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      17 Apr 2013

      Forex Flash: Medium-term bearish view on the Indian Rupee - Nomura

      FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura strategists recently reported the exit of a long USD/INR position "given the risk of near-term positive INR sentiment as market expectations of a policy rate cut (short-term supportive of INR) have risen due to yesterday's weaker-than-expected March WPI inflation print."

      Nomura adds: "Our India economist, Sonal Varma, attaches an 80% probability to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cutting the repo rate by 25bp on 3 May, followed by a long pause. The March trade deficit (scheduled for release this week) is expected to narrow, largely on seasonal factors (Nomura: USD11.9bn, Previous: USD14.9bn), which we believe could raise the risk of market participants selling USD/INR as they further price in further policy rate cuts."

      Nomura maintains a medium-term bearish INR view "as negative structural issues related to the current account and fiscal deficits remain intact, and political considerations become more significant as we edge towards state and general election dates..."
      Apr 17, 2013

      Forex: AUD/USD rejected from 1.04 resistance

      AUD/USD is last at 1.0362, off fresh session lows at 1.0357. The pair has not been able to break above the 1.04 after three times being rejected from 1.0398 highs since mid NY trade.
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      Apr 17, 2013

      Forex: EUR/USD edges lower after impressive close above 1.3155 pivot

      The EUR/USD was finally able to clear stubborn resistance at 1.3155 (the 100dma), closing up 133 pips at 1.3178. The importance of closing above this pivot should not be overlooked, as the 100dma had limited numerous advances dating back to late February 2013. EUR/USD is now trading above the upper end of a wide trading range which started in January and ranges between 1.3150 and 1.2750. The pair is slightly lower during Asia trade, down 8 pips at 1.3170.
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