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19 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: S&P primed for pullback? – Deutsche Bank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The big question in markets at the moment is whether this will be a fourth year of markets facing a setback around this time of the year. In 2010, the S&P500 fell 16% in a slide that began in April and ended three months later in July. In 2011, the S&P500 peaked again in April and then lost 19% before bottoming in September of that year.
Finally in 2012, we saw a fall of 10% that began in early April and ended in early June. So since 2010, we've had what feels like a mini cycle that starts in April and has delivered an average 15% downward move in the S&P500. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Our view continues to be that market will see a more negative Q2 as softer data disappoints. We do think the abundant Central Bank liquidity will limit the downside though.”
Finally in 2012, we saw a fall of 10% that began in early April and ended in early June. So since 2010, we've had what feels like a mini cycle that starts in April and has delivered an average 15% downward move in the S&P500. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Our view continues to be that market will see a more negative Q2 as softer data disappoints. We do think the abundant Central Bank liquidity will limit the downside though.”