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24 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: UK to avoid triple-dip recession after rising 0.1% in Q1 - RBS
FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The National Statistics is scheduled to publish the UK Q1 GDP report on Thursday at 8:30 GMT (9:30 London time) and market is expecting the UK to publish a weak 0.1% QoQ growth in the Q1, and 0.3% in year basis. RBS analysts expect the same 0.1% increase in the quarterly basis but they are more optimistic with 0.4% growth year to year.
"The economy contracted in the final quarter of 2012 (-0.3% q/q) but we expect a technical triple-dip recession to be narrowly avoided with growth of 0.1% q/q, 0.4% y/y, in Q1 2013," points the RBS analysts team. "The UK economy remains in a precarious state – a state of ‘crisis’ in the words of BoE Governor-elect Mark Carney – with weak external demand, domestic deleveraging and overshooting inflation combining to weigh on real output," continues the bank.
For 2013 as a whole, the RBS bank looks for "GDP growth of 0.7%, which would be the fifth year in six where GDP growth has been just 1% or lower."
"The economy contracted in the final quarter of 2012 (-0.3% q/q) but we expect a technical triple-dip recession to be narrowly avoided with growth of 0.1% q/q, 0.4% y/y, in Q1 2013," points the RBS analysts team. "The UK economy remains in a precarious state – a state of ‘crisis’ in the words of BoE Governor-elect Mark Carney – with weak external demand, domestic deleveraging and overshooting inflation combining to weigh on real output," continues the bank.
For 2013 as a whole, the RBS bank looks for "GDP growth of 0.7%, which would be the fifth year in six where GDP growth has been just 1% or lower."