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8 Oct 2020

USD/TRY in all-time highs near 8.00 on geopolitical jitters

  • USD/TRY keeps pushing higher and approaches 8.00.
  • Increasing geopolitical risks keep weighing on the Turkish currency.
  • The lira is the second worst performer in the EM FX space.

The Turkish lira keeps the downward path well and sound for yet another session and lifts USD/TRY to a fresh all-time high just below the key barrier at 8.00 the figure.

USD/TRY higher on geopolitics

TRY started the second half of the week on a negative fashion and depreciated further to the vicinity of the 8.00 level per dollar, recording a new all-time low at the same time.

The Turkish currency remains under heavy pressure pari passu with rising geopolitical concerns both in the Caucasus (where Turkey supports Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia) and in the Eastern Mediterranean (where tensions with Greece keep rising). Both conflicts appear far from being mitigated, let alone solved for the time being.

Adding insult in injury, Turkey plans to test the Russian S-400 defence missile system, which has already ringed alarm bells regarding US sanctions against the country.

So far, TRY shed already more than 25% this year, the second-worst performing EM currency after the Brazilian real (BSR).

USD/TRY key levels

At the moment the pair is gaining 0.70% at 7.9371 and faces the next hurdle at 7.9401(all-time high Oct.8). On the downside, a drop below 7.8558 (monthly high Sep.29) would expose 7.5082 (low Sep.25) and finally 7.3996 (55-day SMA).

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Oct 8, 2020

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