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20 Jul 2021

USD/JPY trades with modest gains around mid-109.00s, upside seems limited

  • A combination of factors assisted USD/JPY to gain some positive traction on Tuesday.
  • Recovery in the equity markets undermined the safe-haven JPY and remained supportive.
  • Rebounding US bond yields acted as a tailwind for the USD and provided a modest lift.

The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild positive bias heading into the European session and was last seen hovering around mid-109.00s.

The pair edged higher on Tuesday and is now looking to build on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of the 109.00 mark, or near two-month lows touched in the previous session. The USD/JPY pair, for now, seems to have stalled its recent sharp pullback from YTD tops, around the 111.65 region and was supported by a combination of factors.

A goodish rebound in the US equity futures turned out to be a key factor that undermined demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen and extended some support to the USD/JPY pair. Bullish traders further took cues from a modest bounce in the US Treasury bond yields, which acted as a tailwind for the US dollar and remained supportive of the uptick.

That said, any meaningful positive move still seems elusive amid growing market fears that the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus would harm the global economic recovery. Adding to this, diminishing odds for an imminent Fed action in the near future might act as a headwind for the greenback and collaborate to cap gains for the USD/JPY pair.

In fact, the Fed funds futures showed the chances of a quarter-point hike in December 2022 fell to 58% on Monday from 90% on July 13, while the likelihood that the Fed raises rates in January 2023 dropped to 70% from 100% last Tuesday. Adding to this, the spread between 10-year and 2-year yields remained near February lows, signalling doubts about the growth outlook.

There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Tuesday, leaving the USD/JPY pair at the mercy of the broader market risk sentiment. This further makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has bottomed out in the near term and positioning for any further appreciating move.

Technical levels to watch

 

Jul 20, 2021

AUD/USD to hit fresh 2021 lows in the 0.72 region – Westpac

The aussie has lost more than 4% against a resurgent US dollar since the June FOMC meeting, underperforming most of the G10. The sharp break below th
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Jul 20, 2021

GBP/USD: Sterling slumps lower, holding above 1.3640 is key to see a consolidation – Commerzbank

GBP/USD dipped below the 1.3670 double-bottom on the UK's "Freedom Day". The pair would target the 1.3504/1.3457 region on a break below 1.3640, Karen
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