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29 Jul 2021

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes $1,845 as bulls reclaim 200-day SMA

  • Gold is up more than 1% on Thursday.
  • Next target on the upside is located at $1,845.
  • USD continues to have a hard time finding demand following disappointing data releases.

After closing in the positive territory on Wednesday, gold preserved its bullish momentum and reached its highest level in two weeks at $1,832 before going into a consolidation phase. As of writing, the XAU/USD pair was up 1.35% on a daily basis at $1,831.

On Wednesday, the greenback came under strong bearish pressure after FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a patient tone regarding the beginning of asset tapering. Although Powell acknowledged that inflation was currently above desired levels, he reiterated that temporary factors were behind rising price pressures. Reflecting the broad-based USD weakness, the US Dollar Index (DXY) closed the third straight day in the negative territory.

During the first half of the day on Thursday, the USD struggled to find demand and the disappointing macroeconomic data releases caused the currency to continue to weaken in the American session.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 6.5% (first estimate) in the second quarter. This reading followed the 6.4% expansion recorded in the first quarter and came in worse than the market expectation of 8.5%. Other data from the US revealed that there were 400,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending July 24, compared to analysts' estimate of 380,000. Finally, the US National Association of Realtors reported that Pending Home Sales declined by 1.9% in June. Currently, the DXY is trading at its lowest level in a month at 91.90, losing 0.4% on the day.

On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, will be looked upon for fresh impetus. The Core PCE Price Index is expected to rise to 3.7% on a yearly basis from 3.4% in May. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD limit its losses but the Fed seems certain that inflation will come back down eventually and the market reaction is likely to remain short-lived.

Gold technical outlook

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator rose to 60 on Thursday, suggesting that the bullish momentum is still intact and there is more room on the upside before XAU/USD become technically overbought. Additionally, gold looks to close above the 200-day SMA for the first time since mid-June, confirming the bullish bias. 

On the upside, the initial resistance is located at $1,834 (July 15 high) ahead of $1,845 (May 10 high) and $1,860 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of April-June uptrend). 

Supports, on the other hand, are located at $1,830 (50-day SMA), $1,820 (200-day SMA) and $1,800 (psychological level, 100-day SMA and Fibonacci 50% retracement).

Additional levels to watch for

 

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