Rate differentials set to gently jostle strong US dollar – Reuters poll

The latest Reuters poll of nearly foreign exchange analysts, conducted during October 29 – November 02 period, highlights investors’ preference for currencies carrying higher interest rates in both the short and medium-term.

Key quotes

Calls for tighter monetary policy to tame inflation running at multiyear highs in the United States and elsewhere have prompted money markets to bring forward rate hike expectations, and are now at odds with central banks’ own projections.

Those expectations have pushed yields on U.S. Treasuries and other sovereign debt higher, especially at the shorter end of the curve, to the highest in more than a year. That is set to continue.

But while rising Treasury yields have helped the dollar to maintain its gains so far this year, rate hike speculation elsewhere looks set to restrain the greenback from strengthening any further.

The Oct. 29-Nov. 2 poll of nearly 70 foreign exchange analysts showed nearly all major currencies trading higher than current levels in the next 12 months – a view these analysts have held for years, even as the dollar drifted higher.

Also read: US dollar sits firm in the 94 area ahead of the Fed