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8 Aug 2014
Brent crude to trend lower throughout 2015 – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at Danske Bank assessed the current situation and prospects for the Brent crude oil.
Key Quotes
“The risk that geopolitical conflicts, i.e. the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the insurgence in Iraq would lead to near-term supply disruptions has been a concern in the market of the past couple of months”.
“In our view, the risk of a supply disruption from either Russia or Iraq remains limited. However, both conflicts may hamper the two countries’ longer term production prospects”.
“Libya’s return to the market is now more or less fully reflected in current prices, which have trapped the Brent crude oil price in the USD104-108/bl range. We expect it to remain here in Q3 and average USD106/bl, as the market will await the outcome of the Iran nuclear talks”.
“A positive outcome of the nuclear talks in November will push the price below this range – we forecast an average price for Brent crude oil of USD102/bl in Q4. From here on, we expect the oil price to trend lower and dip below USD100/bl next year and average USD99/bl for the whole of 2015”.
“Backwardation in the Brent crude oil forward market has narrowed significantly over the past month and there is presently contango at the front end of the curve”.
Key Quotes
“The risk that geopolitical conflicts, i.e. the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the insurgence in Iraq would lead to near-term supply disruptions has been a concern in the market of the past couple of months”.
“In our view, the risk of a supply disruption from either Russia or Iraq remains limited. However, both conflicts may hamper the two countries’ longer term production prospects”.
“Libya’s return to the market is now more or less fully reflected in current prices, which have trapped the Brent crude oil price in the USD104-108/bl range. We expect it to remain here in Q3 and average USD106/bl, as the market will await the outcome of the Iran nuclear talks”.
“A positive outcome of the nuclear talks in November will push the price below this range – we forecast an average price for Brent crude oil of USD102/bl in Q4. From here on, we expect the oil price to trend lower and dip below USD100/bl next year and average USD99/bl for the whole of 2015”.
“Backwardation in the Brent crude oil forward market has narrowed significantly over the past month and there is presently contango at the front end of the curve”.