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11 Feb 2022

AUD/NZD: Series of H4 higher highs and lows favour bull continuation

  • AUD/NZD bulls stay in control along with the medium term bullish trend.
  • NZD inflation expectations will be a key event for Asia on Friday. 
  • RBA acknowledges the possibility of a need for a rate hike in 2022.

At 1.0735, AUD/NZD is flat on the session so far although it has moved between a low of 1.0719 and 1.0739  as the bulls step in to try and hold the price from sliding below the hourly structure. The pair has otherwise been gliding along an ascending trendline that had been established at the start of December 2021 as the Australian dollar finds support on central bank sentiment. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia has been pushing back on the global push for rate hikes near term, but the markets expect that to change considering the prospects for higher global inflation risks. Moreover, the domestic labour market is hotting up. ''The sharp drop in preference-based underemployment underscores how tight the labour market is,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''Workers who would prefer and are available to work more hours is declining sharply. The risks highlighted above suggest the unemployment rate could hit 3% by the end of 2022, in line with the RBA's upside scenario.''

  • RBA Lowe: ''Plausible we could raise rates later this year''

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s inflation expectations survey will be a key event for Asia today and it could post a 30-year high, analysts at Westpac explained.  ''That could motivate markets to price even more into rates and the NZD, even though pricing is already quite full.''

''Multi-month, though, we continue to expect the USD to benefit from the Fed’s looming tightening cycle until around mid-2022. That should at least slow any NZD rallies, and could even cause a final dip to below 0.6500. The latter scenario could be a medium-term buying opportunity.''

AUD/NZD technical analysis

The 4-hour chart above shows the price hugging the ascending trendline support. While there are prospects of higher highs to come, 1.08 could be the limit when taking into account the daily resistance as follows:

Feb 11, 2022

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